Can SEC’s ‘Potential’ Appeal Cause the Rejection of Bitwise’s XRP ETP?

Bitwise Asset Management recently submitted a filing for an XRP Exchange Traded Product (ETP) amid growing anticipation for regulatory approval. This filing, submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has the potential to reshape XRP’s market trajectory if approved. Bitwise submitted the Form S-1 on September 30, laying the groundwork for a possible trust entity that could serve as the foundation for an XRP ETF.

However, much of this depends on the SEC’s next move in its legal battle with Ripple. The SEC has until October 7, 2024, to decide whether to appeal the court’s ruling in the Ripple case regarding programmatic sales of XRP. In July 2023, the court ruled that these sales do not violate securities laws, a decision that provided a boost to XRP’s price at the time.

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, responded to the news of Bitwise’s XRP ETF filing, noting that the SEC has until October 7 to appeal Judge Torres’ July 2023 ruling, which determined that secondary sales of XRP through exchanges are not considered securities.

Thorn expressed skepticism about the ETF’s chances, stating that the likelihood of approval would “drop to near zero” if the SEC decides to appeal. He added, “I’ll be very surprised if they don’t appeal.” Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas echoed this sentiment. He said, “Near zero if Harris wins I agree. Trump victory and anything is poss on this front IMO.”

Bitwise’s XRP ETP application could boost demand, potentially driving the price toward $1 if approved. At the time of writing, XRP is trading in red and has dipped below the crucial $1 mark. The outcome of the SEC’s decision regarding an appeal remains a critical factor for XRP investors. If the SEC appeals, XRP prices could fall as low as $0.40. However, if no appeal is made, XRP may rally toward the $1 mark.